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Participants of the EAC Meeting of Permanent Secretaries Responsible for Energy with the Acres team in Arusha, Tanzania, |
Acres and its associated companies have, for many years, been one of the most active international consultants in electric power planning in East Africa. Thus, several years ago when the East African Community (EAC) issued an international competitive bid for the East African Power Master Plan Study, we welcomed the chance to combine our rich knowledge of the individual power systems to prepare an overall Master Plan for the region. The EAC is the regional intergovernmental organization of the Republics of Kenya, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania. The EAC aims at widening and deepening cooperation among partner states in the political, economic and social fields for their mutual benefit. For this important project, the EAC obtained funding from SIDA and the support of the World Bank in administering the project. In order to provide the most competitive proposal for this project, Acres arranged for Scott Wilson Piesold of the UK and Kagga & Partners of Uganda to be sub-consultants. Our bid was successful and we began the project in May 2003. The importance of the project to the region was clearly demonstrated in the Inception Mission when our team met with the key EAC, utility and energy ministry representatives in the three countries. The assignment was carried out in two phases: a scoping study and a detailed study. Each phase included capacity development programs for utility and ministry representatives. The scoping stage began with a review and update of the load forecast for each country, assuming unconstrained conditions, to produce forecasts that were based on consistent models and fundamental assumptions. This in turn enabled the preparation of a load forecast for the combined system taking into account complementary effects of individual system demand characteristics obtained from the examination of the hourly generation data. To facilitate transmission planning, the forecasts were prepared by major substation and included coincidence factors. In order to meet the increasing system demand, a list of potential indigenous energy resources suitable to meet the demand of the combined systems was developed and this was complemented by resources using imported fuels. Candidate hydro projects in Uganda and Tanzania were considered taking into account environmental, social, locational and economic factors. Extensive gas fields have been identified off the coast of Tanzania and gas from the Songo Songo field is already being used for power generation. The existing reserves and resources now being proven provide the potential for significant additional power generation using natural gas. Candidate geothermal plants for further development have been identified in the Rift Valley, Kenya. Uganda also has a geothermal potential but since no exploration or drilling has been carried out this resource was not considered. Recent studies indicate that coal deposits in Tanzania could provide fuel for large-scale power generation and this possibility was also considered. Next, we carried out a conceptual review of the existing and proposed regional interconnection schemes in Sub-Sahara Africa. Additionally, we reviewed the possibility of establishing an East African power pool including membership in the Southern African Power Pool, the potential organization and rules, the pool requirements, the potential market structures and the importance of bilateral contracts in establishing a power pool. Planning and design criteria used in the national master plan studies were evaluated and common criteria were developed, including those related to cooperation between the member states. In Phase 2, the regional load forecasts prepared in the previous phase were combined with an evaluation of potential energy resources and selected interconnection alternatives in order to determine the most economic system expansion plans. System analysis studies developed and evaluated several generation expansion sequences in order to determine the least-cost plan to supply the generation needs for the region. Other studies evaluated the technical feasibility of the selected interconnection alternatives and determined the physical requirements of the interconnection schemes as well as system reinforcement requirements. The studies included either isolated development or bilateral trade (based on gas-fired, hydro generated or imported power themes) leading to eventual integrated system operations requiring the commissioning of the transmission lines to allow this type of operation. The transmission alternatives included both 330- and 230-kV development. Estimates were prepared of the annual capital requirement associated with the least-cost development plan, including generating plant, transmission lines and substations. An economic analysis measured the potential benefits of the combined development relative to continuation as three separate power systems and determined that very significant economic benefits could be obtained by moving towards more integrated operation. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to assess the impacts on economic viability of variations in key variables. In the final analysis, the least-cost plans were found to be justified from technical, economic, social, environmental and operational points of view. The rich endowment of hydro and natural gas resources allowed for a Master Plan that is very Kyoto friendly. Implementation Recommendations The plan provides the basis for coordinated action among the three governments involved, and lays out a 20-year investment program with clear objectives and targets, predicated on meeting the expected growth in demand for power and the reliability standards agreed upon by all three governments and their utilities. The next step will be an agreement among the countries on the protocols for implementing the various elements of cooperation, particularly investment in intra-regional transmission lines. Many are watching this EAC initiative as a model that could be used for similar power sector cooperation efforts elsewhere. |
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George Davies |
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Bob Griesbach |
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Anibal Carias |