The seasons are a'changing The Government of Canada's Climate Change Action Fund was set up to provide funding for targeted research to better understand Canada's vulnerability to climate change and to provide information necessary for the development of adaptation strategies. The St. John's office of SGE Acres has received funding to carry out research into the possible effect of climate change on hydroelectric generation on the island of Newfoundland, under the direction of Susan Richter.

SGE Acres is well equipped for the job. Using ARSP (Acres Reservoir Simulation Program) we have carried out water management studies and developed power and energy models for 19 of the hydroelectric systems operated by Newfoundland Power. With precipitation data from climate change scenarios defined by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling, the SGE Acres team is in a position to develop theoretical discharge records for a representative sample of hydro systems, and to estimate how climate changes would translate into changes in energy production.

Global climate models suggest that Newfoundland will experience warmer, longer summers, and shorter, wetter, winters. There would be less snow, and more rain. The research program will enable utilities to adapt to the new seasonal patterns in order to satisfy demand.

"Some changes are easy to predict," says Susan, "others will require further analysis. For example, less accumulation of snow and higher temperatures will mean that flows will peak earlier in the year. Higher summer temperatures will lead to higher evaporation losses from reservoirs. More difficult to predict are the effects of extreme rainfall events. Will future dams need larger capacity spillways to give downstream protection? And how will climate change affect patterns of demand? This program is looking only at the supply side - it's an important investigation, but there are many more questions to be answered if we are to fully understand the effect of climate change on hydroelectric power generation and transmission."